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August 15, 2006
The Triumph Of "Damned If You Won't" Politics
Richard Cohen's latest is a head-exploder for the ages:
From the start, it seemed that Israel had failed to take due note of the mistakes of Donald Rumsfeld. The longtime and (inexplicably) current U.S. secretary of defense propounded the bright idea that Iraq could be conquered and pacified with about 150,000 American troops. Military men of sound mind and vast experience thought that maybe 350,000 to 500,000 troops would be more like it, but Rumsfeld, fearing a quagmire and eschewing nation-building, got his way. The United States is still in Iraq, mired there for some time to come.
Whoa there, big guy. Step back and put down the kool-aid.
How long have we been in Kosovo? Someone? Anyone? But...but...we got the coveted international buy-in, didn't we? We listened to our friends and neighbors. We even have the blessing of Germany and France. But are we even close to being "done" there? Will we ever be done there?
Does anyone seriously believe, given the state of the infrastructure in Iraq, that had we gone in with 500,000 troops we'd have been out of Iraq now? That we'd not have aroused any resentment among the sizeable Baathist resistance that (at the time if you'll recall, was very angry and extremely concerned about a permanent US occupation force)? That we'd not have caused a worse insurgent problem than we have now?
Because I don't. But hey - you just go on believing that if it makes you feel better.
Israel tried something similar in Lebanon. It, too, chose to fight an optional war on the relative cheap. For good reasons, it responded to Hezbollah's provocations, but it might well have decided to make a punitive raid or two and then wait for the usual prisoner exchange. Preemptive wars have their own rules. They cannot justify high casualties, since these will not be seen as commensurate with the threat. The United States, for instance, could never institute a draft to get more troops into Iraq. Americans would not stand for it. This, among other things, is a lesson of Vietnam -- maybe the only one the Bush administration learned from that painful conflict.
You have to love Mr. Cohen's logic. A still, small voice tells me that when the missiles started flying, Israel was more worried about finding the batteries and stopping them than about whether their response was seen as commensurate with the threat. For over a month, as Hezbollah rockets rained down on the filthy Jews from civilian neighborhoods (apparently, their commendable concern for noncombatants notwithstanding, Hezbollah was unable to find a single deserted spot in the entire nation of Lebanon from which to lob missiles at Israel) the camomile and croissant munching crowd have been screeching about a lack of proportionality on Israel's part. Yet Mr. Cohen feels Israel's response lacked a certain je ne sais quois: he must be one of the few critics in the world to accuse the Jews of being overly nuanced.
And while we're on the subject of proportionality, the U.S. should have had more troops in Iraq, but the American people would never have stood for a draft (which, Cohen helpfully states, is the only way we could have gotten the troops). Wunderbar. So what is his suggestion? Ah yes, his party isn't in charge so they don't have to pony up suggestions. Osama's favored choice - do nothing - looks better and better, doesn't it?
Cohen draws some sage lessons from all of this:
But the lesson of Iraq and, now, Lebanon, is that zealots make tough enemies. It was one thing for Israel to fight apathetic and hapless Egyptians, Iraqis, Jordanians, Syrians and Lebanese. Those armies consisted of the indifferent: Sure, these Arabs opposed Israel, but they were mostly unaffected by it and would rather live with it than die fighting it. Even the Palestinians proved to be not much of a battlefield foe. This has not been the case with Hezbollah or, in Iraq, the various groups of fanatics who would blow themselves up for reasons that we could not begin to fathom. Hezbollah is now described in terms once reserved for the Japanese army of World War II. "If you are waiting for a white flag coming out of the Hezbollah bunker, I can assure you it won't come," said Brig. Gen. Ido Nehushtan, a member of the Israeli army's general staff.This zealotry, this ideology, this religious fervor is not something we in the West -- and that includes Israel -- know how to deal with. The sheer scale and number of suicide bombings in Iraq was once considered inconceivable. Iraq, after all, was extolled as one of the more secular Arab states, which was among the reasons why some otherwise sane people predicted an easy U.S. victory followed by the national singing of "God Bless America."
Israel's (and America's) mistakes, in the Gospel According to Richard Cohen lie in... what? in not being proportional enough? Or was it that, when facing a tough, determined enemy who will stop at nothing, they didn't immediately bend over and kiss their own arses goodbye?
The truth of today's asymmetrical warfare is that that the term "asymmetrical" is perhaps more aptly applied to the will of the parties than to their armies:
Democracies are in a fix. If your enemy will gladly die for his cause while you wouldn't think of dying for yours (not that you even know what it is: freedom? liberty?) then clearly the fight is not to the swift but to the suicidal.
They know what they want.
Does the West? And do we, any longer, have the will to do what is needed to survive?
What is Cohen saying? Fight back only when your enemy doesn't really want to kill you? For critics like Cohen, it would seem those with the will to resist are damned if we will, and damned if we won't. Because in a democracy, government can only act with the consent of the governed and to an increasing degree the governed are staying home and opting out of the hard choices of our times.
Because, you know, this is all just too scary and tomorrow is another day. Except when tomorrow doesn't come.
Oh well. Let someone else deal with it. Maybe it will all just go away.
Posted by Cassandra at August 15, 2006 07:48 AM
Comments
In any conflict, it's always easy for arm chair experts to look at how it was fought and second guess everything that was done. This isn't anything new:
"Why, it appears that we appointed all of our worst generals to command the armies and we appointed all of our best generals to edit the
newspapers. I mean, I found by reading a newspaper that these editor generals saw all of the defects plainly from the start but didn't tell me until it was too late.
I'm willing to yield my place to these best generals and I'll do my best for the cause by editing a newspaper." --Robert E. Lee
In fact, we made mistakes early in the Iraq conflict that made our mission there much more difficult ... and I'm sure Israel is examining the results of this latest conflict and will be better prepared next time ... and I believe there will be one. Unlike the US or Israel, the UN peacekeeping missions fail time and time again and they never learn from their mistakes.
Posted by: Frodo at August 15, 2006 09:27 AM
Great quote, Frodo. And I couldn't agree more with the rest of your comment.
Posted by: Cassandra at August 15, 2006 09:46 AM
I wonder if there has ever been a war, however, where we didn't make any mistakes?
Wars aren't fought in a vacuum. People always want to look back later and say, "if only we'd done x, y, or z". But then we'd have had a different set of problems to contend with. Maybe better.
And maybe worse. The thing is, we don't know.
Posted by: Cassandra at August 15, 2006 09:48 AM
"An Army is a team, lives, sleeps, fights, and eats as a team. This individual hero stuff is a lot of horse shit! The bilious bastards who write that kind of stuff for the Saturday Evening Post don't know any more about real fighting under fire than they know about f***ing!" - General George S. Patton, 1944
The real question is, what does Sandra Bernhardt think of all this?
Master Frodo's quote was better, I just like the blunt vulgarity of Patton's quote with respect to how much all the smart guys know.
Posted by: Don Brouhaha at August 15, 2006 11:35 AM
My fav squeal from the Lefty Experts is the whole mantra of "We disbanded the Iraqi Army". Heh! Like Da Grunt said, "WE didn't disband diddly squat. They ran away and disbanded themselves!"
More boots on the ground? Yeah, but not many. It would help with the number of rotations and relieve some of the stress of combat instead of these guys doing three and four tours in four years. That would be the only advantage, NOT the number required to train the IA and support patrols and missions. Possibly a stronger presence on the borders and that would require a greater number of boots but no one can close a border. I give you our own as an example.
"Let us go to the tele-prompter so I can tell you what you need to think......." :-o
Posted by: JustADad at August 15, 2006 11:40 AM
Seems to me having hundreds of thousands more troops would have increased the risk of having the logistics tail severed. Remember the mad (and successful) rush across the desert? Small armies move faster than large, and require a lot less material. Of course, I was just a sergeant, not a liberal pundit or even a lowly General, so what do I know.
apathetic and hapless Egyptians, Iraqis, Jordanians, Syrians and Lebanese. Those armies consisted of the indifferent
Would that be the result of being draftees? I have no clue as to how those armies were formed, but calling for a draft in one breath and lamenting the weakness of an indifferent military in the next seems to display a profound ignorance or extreme disingenuity.
Posted by: WhatDoIKnow at August 15, 2006 01:11 PM
JAD,
At what point does it become a diminshing return on deploying more men 'in theater'? Why pick 300K? Why not a million men? Why not? Wouldn't that scare 'em real bad? A million pairs of American boots on the ground. Wow. Just think of the targeting possibilities, and the logistics of that big a force in Iraq.
I don't know what the "right" sized force really is or should have been, but I have some suspicions from a few things I've read the GWB was lead to believe by some of our 'allies' that they would commit troops to the occupation, once all the 'fighting' (Mission Accomplished!) was done. Heh. I think he was badly mislead by our so-called 'friends' on that one.
The Army and Marines have done a heckuva job under the conditions, but like you said, a few more divisions would have reduced the pressure on the rotations in and out, and maybe helped the manpower thing on the border, until the Iraqi army (Now Baathist free!) was stood up. A young Army Lt. I know told me (after his first tour ended in spring'04) that a big wall between Iraq and Syria and Iraq and Iran would solve a lot of the problems they had with the jihadis.
My two cents, probably worthless at this point.
Posted by: Don Brouhaha at August 15, 2006 01:17 PM
We don't call him Dubya for nothing Don! :-o
Yes, there were troops promised and then not forthcoming but we pretty much knew going in who would stand at our side. I can't see a "correct" number frankly. In-country the level seems fine unless we intend to close the borders which is like farting in the wind (still hung up on yesterday's thread - heh!) if we don't just cut loose. No, the increase in numbers, to me anyhoo, would be for rotation purposes and relieving multiple deployments. These young men and women come home dinged up a good bit, mostly unreported, and head back into work-up mode within ninety to one-twenty. That's a pretty quick turnaround. It'd be nice to have more boots in the service but Congress would never pay for that which brings us in a full circle. That and the various branches just have to have their new billion dollar toys etc.
The flip-side is the unbelievable experience our entire military has now for the soon to be coming next round of conflict!
That 1LT was correct but we also refuse to do what we need for political reasons. 1st Battle of Fallujah? 22nd MEU pulled back from Sadr and his Madhi Army? Lots of examples of things that would've put us so far ahead of the curve if not neutered by politics. Could we close the borders if we really wanted to? Not by patrols but the death and destruction would be very, very, very heavy doing what we should and probable political suicide. When you unleash a MEU or MEF it is an almost un-friggin'-believable force of nature and once unleashed it should be let alone until the mission is accomplished. That, in and of itself, would have reduced the need of more boots on the ground but that same force of nature scares the ever loving s**t out of politicos.
Oh well, it'll be an unhappy day for someone when we get drilled here at home again and truly, truly unleash the Dogs of War. Diplomacy and police work are working so well you know. ;-)
Posted by: JustADad at August 15, 2006 02:14 PM
Why stop at 1 million? Let's have sixty million, so we can watch every Iraqi all the time - 8 hour shifts. That'd stop them.
Who is Richard Cohen anyway? Where did he serve and why am I supposed to believe his military expertise? What is he willing to give up to get the extra boots on the ground?
I believe we held an election, and GWB was re-elected president, not Richard Cohen. This was after the invasion of Iraq. If the public insisted on a change of direction, it could have elected John Kerry. (I'm not sure which John Kerry or what direction we would have gotten, but that's another issue.)
Who knew that journalists were infallible? Next war, let's ask them what to do.
Posted by: MarkD at August 15, 2006 05:16 PM
Hey Mark, did you read (or listen to) Yon's latest on the whole "civil war" issue? I really like the guy and love his stuff but I have a hard time agreeing with him on some points. Webb's take is more like my own I guess but at least there are some folks out there that put it all on the line to find stuff out. Versus sitting in an Ivory Tower making s**t up! ;-)
Posted by: JustADad at August 15, 2006 05:46 PM
OOPS! Sorry, West's take is more like mine!
I was reading W.E.B. Griffin's new one and got confused. Heh!
Senility: a mind is a terrible thing to have wasted! :-o
Posted by: JustADad at August 15, 2006 05:49 PM
I was going to say... WEB??? Huh?
That man is a mental train wreck.
Cohen, if I'm not mistaken, served in the National Guard during VietNam. He is famous for comparing his 6 month stint to Bush's 2 years flying fighter jets.
Yeah. Uh-huh. All National Guard service is alike in the Gospel According to Richard Cohen, whether you dish up chow for 6 months in the cafeteria or risk your life flying sorties for 2 years.
Posted by: Cassandra at August 15, 2006 05:54 PM
It'd be nice to have more boots in the service but Congress would never pay for that which brings us in a full circle. That and the various branches just have to have their new billion dollar toys etc.
There was a good piece in Foreign Affairs that I was reading on the plane from somewhere...Georgia? I forget. I was going to write about it before the heavens opened up and dumped a load of ... well, you know... on my desk. Maybe I will later this week, JAD. You people need to quit switching monikers - you're driving me to drink.
Posted by: Cassandra at August 15, 2006 07:39 PM
Have a beer on me Cass
Posted by: Unkawill at August 15, 2006 08:41 PM
Thanks - don't mind if I do :)
Posted by: Cassandra at August 15, 2006 09:56 PM
Why shucks M'am, I don't hardly change monikers a tall! :-o
'Sides, JustADad has such a nice ring to it don't cha' think? ;-)
JHD met his demise. Long Live JHD!
And Conch Republic Rum! :-)
Well, except at Matt's place who will not accept the new moniker for some reason. And yes, I went in and tossed my cookies but it still keeps coming back to JHD.
Posted by: JustADad at August 15, 2006 11:57 PM
I like the comparison of Hezbollah to the Imperial Japanese Army of WWII. Let's see how that turned out - oh, right, the Imperial Japanese Army no longer exists, because we killed most of them, albeit at cost to ourselves. And here I thought that asymmetrical warfare took away the advantages of firepower and technology. Maybe Hezbollah has a different manual that says that standing their ground is a good idea.
Posted by: Chris at August 16, 2006 03:28 PM