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February 15, 2007

The Associated Press Discovers Statistics!

The headline was a guaranteed attention grabber. AP: Helicopter Flights in Iraq Risky. The lead paragraphs were no less alarming:

OVER CENTRAL IRAQ -- Barely a minute into flight, after a smooth liftoff from a landing zone outside Baghdad, our Black Hawk helicopter suddenly dropped like a rock -- briefly -- and so did my stomach.

The dangers of helicopter flight can be mundane or dramatic, routine or random. Either way, it's a high-risk business for U.S. aviators who fly combat and support missions daily across Iraq. Over the past month at least six U.S. helicopters have gone down, and five of the crashes are blamed on hostile ground fire. The deadliest was a Black Hawk hit by small arms fire on Jan. 20, killing all 12 soldiers aboard.

Military officials, while concerned about the possibility that insurgents are more intensively targeting helicopters amid the buildup of U.S. troops in Baghdad, say that fewer than 100 have been lost during more than 1.2 million hours of flight time since the war began in March 2003.

Somewhere in the dim recesses of my memory these numbers struck a discordant note; but who was I to question a well respected outfit like the Associated Press, and why this particular story? Was I a professional journalist, trained to critically inspect the facts and present an accurate and balanced picture to the reading public? Did I have an experienced editorial staff to provide that vital layer of editorial oversight which ensures against the inevitable missteps that occur in a 24/7 newscycle?

Of course not. I was one of the drooling horde who ride along with the MSM like remora fish on the bellies of sharks, picking at the scraps. My only conceivable motive for piling on would not be a desire to get at the truth, but some twisted partisan agenda.

Still.... fewer than 100 helicopters lost since March of 2003? What about that Brookings study? I seem to recall the number was more like HALF of that? Seems a tad, well... misleading. Couldn't the AP have done a little checking?

And five out of six helo crashes this month from enemy fire -- is that typical? Somehow that doesn't seem right either. But there is no context. What are the facts? This reporter doesn't seem at all interested in finding them, does he?

And oddly enough, when I do some checking what I do find doesn't exactly support the AP's alarmist headline, nor the opening paragraphs of the previous article:

Overall, the recent helicopter crashes do not present a significant strain on U.S. capabilities in the region because there are hundreds of helicopters flying thousands of missions a month in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Brookings Institution has counted 56 downed U.S. military helicopters in Iraq since May 2003, and says enemy fire was responsible for about half of the crashes.

The CH-46, a Vietnam-era helicopter, is one of the oldest in the U.S. fleet. Nearly 5,000 U.S. helicopters were lost in Vietnam -- about 2,075 were shot down and 2,560 were lost in accidents and mechanical malfunctions.

So not only is the total number of downed helos about half what the AP implied it was, but the proportion downed due to enemy fire (which article left you to infer, by citing only this month's rate, was something like 5 out of 6 or 83%) is more like 50%. This is fairly significant, because it means that even if people were riding around in these contraptions in peacetime, a comparable number of them would be crashing due to mechanical failures, which they do back in the States. To be accurate however, it is not at all certain that as many of them would crash due to op tempo considerations. But the question of flight hours also plays into the number of crashes:

"We are engaged with a thinking enemy. This enemy understands we're in the process of instituting new plans," he said, a reference to increased helicopter usage.

Because of roadside ambushes, U.S. helicopter usage in Iraq rose from 240,000 flying hours in 2005 to 334,000 in 2006, Simmons said. This year, pilots are expected to fly more than 400,000 hours.

Army pilots alone are involved in about 100 incidents per month of enemy fire, with about 17 resulting in direct hits on aircraft, Simmons said. Since the war began, he said, the Army has Lost 29 helicopters, all to enemy fire. He did not have figures for the other branches of the military.

Despite the clear danger, he said, there were no plans to scale back flights.


Last time I checked, since 2005 that makes an increase in helicopter usage of 40% from 2005 to 2006 and another 27% in 2007. Now some people, knowing that half the crashes are mechanical in nature and half from enemy fire, might reasonably expect that if you increase the number of flights by 66%, you should expect to see a proportional increase in the ....

[drum roll here]

... number of helicopter crashes.

And given that we are (another major drum roll) "engaged with a thinking enemy here", one would hope that the enemy would figure out at some point in time that there are more whirly birds up in the sky. As General Pace remarked here:

Military officials say as long as there are more helicopters in the air, there are more chances of crashes. But at a Senate hearing Tuesday, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Peter Pace, conceded there could be more than numbers at work: "At this point in time I do not know whether or not it is the law of averages that caught up with us or has there been a change in tactics, techniques and procedures on the part of the enemy,"

As you can see from the graphic below, the long-term trend does not show (at least yet) a sustained upswing in the number of helo casualties:

helos.gif

But this doesn't stop the AP from detecting an alarming "trend" of "risky" helicopter flights during wartime, nor a "thinking enemy" who (who knew!) has worked out how to point and fire weapons at our aircraft!

We have known since Vietnam that the enemy knows how to shoot helicopters down. This is not "news". This is just one more reason you cannot hold ground from the air - air cover is invaluable, but it is one component of the air-ground team and they both have their vulnerabilities. Some folks might have thought it a good thing that we are increasing the use of helicopters, given the enemy's use of IEDs and roadside bombs on the ground. After all, as one pilot said of helicopter travel:

"It's the safest way I know to get around here,"

But that makes a lousy headline. Unless, of course, you can throw the word "risk" in there somewhere.

Posted by Cassandra at February 15, 2007 05:20 AM

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Comments

Groundpounders like my spouse refer to helos as
"whirling sh%tcans of death"
Affectionately, of course...

As to AP (and all the others), put headlines like these in a file called,"looking at the world through a straw"

Posted by: Carrie at February 15, 2007 07:59 AM

I watched this report in the clinic while I was waiting for that prior service Gitmo medic to remove my staples. The footage used was questionable, because you saw the Chinook and then didn't see it, with the speculative analysis
of the hand hend rocket launcher being cited.

Of course, CNN is above such things as CONTEXT.
That has no relevance. Shame on you.

Posted by: Cricket at February 15, 2007 08:54 AM

They increased the use of helicopters to reduce the amount of traffic on the roads thus making fewer targets for IED attacks. Generally I'd much rather take my chances there on a helo lift then on the roads in an up armored HUMMWV.

Posted by: Frodo at February 15, 2007 09:10 AM

Yes, some might have written that up as "US military successfully adapts to enemy tactics!" instead of "US military has no plans to cancel dangerous helo flights!!!!"

*sigh*

Posted by: Cassandra at February 15, 2007 09:18 AM

Cass, they actually quoted an awssifer as saying the enemy is smart and like the Borg, the US military has adapted.

Next thing you know, they will be drooling at the sound of a bell.

Oh, I am cranky and need my Darvon.
*rummages around the laptop*

Posted by: Cricket at February 15, 2007 09:52 AM

After all, as one pilot said of helicopter travel:

"It's the safest way I know to get around here,"

But that makes a lousy headline. Unless, of course, you can throw the word "risk" in there somewhere.

What the heck is wrong about pointing out that helicopter travel in Iraq can be risky? Am I misreading you on this? Isn't your last para. a criticism of pointing out (in a headline) the riskiness (notwithstanding the recent surge in helicopter downings)?

(That said, I concur that the "less than 100" lost since March 2003 is misleadingly inaccurate. Someone oughta shoot the writer/his editor(s) a note)

Posted by: dgf at February 15, 2007 10:54 AM

Everything, in war, is risky, dgf. That's a dumb-ass statement.

And by the way, if you look at that long term graph, given that the op tempo of flight hours has INCREASED by at least 40% since 2005, we have not seen at least a 40% increase in helo crashes, now have we?

So a reasonable conclusion from a statistician's viewpoint would be that this is pretty damn GOOD safety record, especially since half are due to mechanical failures and if you just fly more, you will have more mech failures especially in a sandy environment which plays hell with engines. Of course, we don't see that reflected anywhere in the story, do we?

Of course we don't. Because that would have been fair. And it would have required actual thought.

Posted by: Cassandra at February 15, 2007 11:14 AM

Everything, in war, is risky, dgf. That's a dumb-ass statement.

(1) What, exactly, are you referring to a "dumb-ass statement"? (2) (& if not included in your answer to the preceding question) doesn't the last para. of your original post amount to a criticism of pointing out (in a headline) the riskiness of helo travel in Iraq?

As a general matter, I concur with you that oftentimes news stories leave me with more questions than answers. That is to say, an awful lot of reporting is mediocre to shabby. It's been true for a long long time, and no doubt will continue to be true for a comparable period. And so it goes. But it most certainly is not limited to reporting on Iraq. (&, now, if you want to sink your teeth into a true "reporting horror", why not mention Frank Gaffney's recent diddlying of Lincoln).

Posted by: dgf at February 15, 2007 11:29 AM

dgf,
I think the underlying point here is the inanity of the AP making ultra-obvious statements and trying to make them *seem* like breaking news. Everyone knows that travel -- helicopter or otherwise -- in a war zone is dangerous. It seems to me that in an attempt to regain some kind of creditability (after the Jamil Hussein, et al stories) the AP is running "No Sh!t Sherlock" stories -- with a twist. There is nothing *wrong* with pointing out that helicopter travel is dangerous. Just as there is nothing *wrong* with reporting that if you wipe your a$$ with too little toilet paper, you run the "risk" of getting shite on your hand. But, is that really worthy of a nationwide story? The answer is no, unless you're trying to work a specific angle. (anti-war, anti-military, anti-Bush, take your pick, it's one-size-fits-all) Helicopter's go down in peacetime and wartime. It's unfortunate, but it's a fact of life. Same as not having enough tp.

Posted by: Sly2017 at February 15, 2007 11:34 AM

I think it's a dumb ass statement that flying a helo in a war zone is "risky".

Of course it's risky. Good Lord.

And when you add the misleading stats intended to make you think the risk has gone UP (when in fact, looking at the crashes per flight hour they appear to have gone DOWN - it being an inescapable fact of math that if you keep the numerator fairly level and increase the denominator the resulting number DECREASES, making it not MORE but LESS "risky" - over the past two years) that's pretty damned lousy reporting.

Posted by: Cassandra at February 15, 2007 11:44 AM

And I haven't read whatever you're talking about with Lincoln, but since he's dead and has been for some time, I am not particularly concerned with the immediate relevance there.

Meanwhile, there's a really important vote going on in Congress dgf... hence the AP's spate of articles on "risky" helo flights!!!! Ooooh!!!!

Posted by: Cassandra at February 15, 2007 11:47 AM

Sly -

Thanks for the civil reply.

Cass--

OK. If I've understood you, there's nothing wrong with noting the "risk" of helo movement/travel in Iraq, in the headline itself - so I *was* misunderstanding your last paragraph (original post) where you seemed to indicate that any mention therein of risk/riskiness is wrong-headed, misleading or inane. (You might want to tighten up your writing, there.) So the NewsBuzz headline on its version of the LA Times story (which you approvingly link to) ~ "Helicopters risky, but still best option in Iraq, Army pilot says" ~ is hunkey-dorey and non-dumb-assed. Understood.

Anyhoo, that said, I hadn't realized that there was a "spate" of recent AP articles on helo downings -- apart from the fact that there have been 7 downings in the past three weeks or so (and I expect that each downing merits at least one story from each news provider.) You seem to suggest that your feelings on the matter are that the AP's "spating reporting" is a calculated maneuver on that organization's part (or on writer Robert Burns') to skew the vote in Congress. I find that pretty far-fetched, but it takes all kinds.

(By the bye, I imagine your research turned up the same as my brief research on the question - that the inaccurate "100 helo" figure seems to result from a R. Burns' brainfart/Libby moment (not excusing it, just noting it) See earlier Burns' article (http://www.armytimes.com/news/2007/02/apiraqcody070210/ )

Anyways, given that (as I understand it) headline writing is the responsibility of the editors of the publication (vs. the writer or wire-service); hence, the dumb-assedness of what appears here to be the "wire-service" headline should be shared by the news outlets which published the Burns piece (which was, principally, a POV piece).

Would it have been a better piece without the "numbers lost" error? Of course. Could it have been better yet? Sure. Has there been a recent surge in helicopter downings. Indubitably. Do we know why? Nope. Is this story/headline a big deal. Doubtful. Is AP Satan? Probably not.

And so it goes.

Posted by: dgf at February 15, 2007 01:42 PM

Actually, in all fairness to R. Burns, he probably didn't title his own work.

That's not how it usually works. That is what annoys me about how the wire services do business. Often the reporter doesn't really do all that bad a job (not always). But a REALLY misleading caption or lede gets put on their story by copy editors who are pushing an agenda that has NOTHING to do with their story. And that is wrong. A good case in point is the WaPo's Doug Feith debacle last week - it turns out that the reporter didn't even turn in a screwed up story. It got botched up after he turned in work that was essentially correct - they took it and chopped it all up, then stuck his name on it and attributed shoddy, incorrect work to him under his byline. Not the first time that's happened, either.

Posted by: Cassandra at February 15, 2007 02:03 PM

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